Breaking down the wild-card race

For all intents and purposes, we'll say one spot is up for grabs. Andy is in fifth with a 1.5-game lead over Ricky and Chris (tied for 6th), so we'll assume Andy will be in the playoffs for the time being.

And with that, we venture into the race for the final playoff spot.

Technically, five teams are alive, but we'll rule out Dave for now. So that leaves us with the aforementioned Ricky and Chris, as well as Adam and Mike.

A breakdown of the race after the jump.


Adam and Ricky picked up crucial wins last week, while Mike stayed alive with a tie. Chris was hurt the most, losing to Adam and having to watch Ricky escape with a win.

Here's a look at each team's chances.

Ricky
Current standing: T6
Record: 9-8-2
Games behind: --
Remaining opponent's win percentage: .500

Chris
Current standing: T6
Record: 9-8-2
Games behind: --
Remaining opponent's win percentage: .447

Adam
Current standing: 8
Record: 9-10
Games behind: 1
Remaining opponent's win percentage: .360

Mike
Current standing: 9
Record: 8-10-1
Games behind: 1.5
Remaining opponent's win percentage: .579

OK, so first impressions - we can basically eliminate Mike. He would obviously need to win out, beating some damn good teams. And he hasn't had a winning streak since Weeks 6-7. So a 3-game win streak vs. the likes of Bob, Joe and Dave seems very unlikely.

That leaves us with Adam, who has a very easy schedule left. Richie, Shea and Jack, in that order. He likely needs to win the two games he should. 11-11 could get in, but it'd still be tough.

Now, as far as Ricky and Chris, here's the kicker: They play each other the final week of the season! How's that for some drama? I think if I were a betting man, I'd bet on the final wild-card spot going to the winner of that matchup. The interesting thing about it is that the tiebreaker is Week 22 win percentage. So, basically, a 1-game lead for either of these two does not matter going into the final week, unless they tie in that final matchup. Chris and Ricky simply need to win one of the next two weeks to know they will be playing for a playoff spot in the final week.

Another key to this all is that Adam faces Jack in the final week. A win is going to be extremely tough, let alone a big enough win to grab a playoff spot. Since Adam is a game behind both Ricky and Chris, he cannot clinch a spot outright in the next two weeks. That means it will come down, for him, to whether he can beat Jack in that final week and how much he can beat him by since the tiebreaker is win percentage in Week 22. If Chris and Ricky both go 0-2 in the next two weeks, and Adam goes 2-0, Adam is a game ahead, but since Chris and Ricky play each other, it means Adam would have to beat Jack in the final week. Confused? Then I won't even get started with the possibility of ties.

Any way you look at it, we have a great race that will most definitely come down to the final week. Check back tomorrow for a breakdown of the Tug McGraw divisional race.