Handicapping the Home Run Derby (fantasy style)

You degenerates like to gamble, so here are your odds on who wins tonight's Home Run Derby (8, ESPN).

Some of our teams, obviously, are not involved.

But here are the participants: Andy, Chris, Bob, Richie and Ricky. An in-depth look after the jump.


Andy: Nelson Cruz (22), Ryan Howard (22)
Chris: Brandon Inge (21), Adrian Gonzalez (24)
Bob: Prince Fielder (22)
Richie: Carlos Pena (24)
Ricky: Joe Mauer (15), Albert Pujols (32)

Andy, Chris and Ricky obviously have the edge, but Bob and Richie certainly have the capability to put on a show.

Here are the official odds with explanation.

Andy: Cruz is having a nice season but he's new to the Derby. Howard has a title to his name and the experience, but this is his first one since 2007. Still, you have to like Andy's chances here, as he probably has the best chance of anyone with two players. Odds: 4/1

Chris: Inge? Really? OK, it's going to come down to Gonzalez for Chris. The bopper is in his first derby, but that's really the only drawback. Once Gonzo gets on a roll, he's smooth as silk. Odds: 11/2

Bob: Having one candidate brings down his chances, but Fielder is nothing to cry about. The only worry I'd have here is whether Fielder will get tired should he make it through the first two rounds. Odds: 10/1

Richie: As has been the case all season, it looks like a win for Richie could be a longshot. Even though Pena is the AL home run leader at this point, I don't like his chances very much. Mainly because he's on Richie's team. Odds: 19/1

Ricky: Let's be real, Mauer ain't winning this. So that leaves us with Pujols. How can you not like him as the favorite? Here's why: The last player to win a derby in his home stadium was Ryne Sandberg in 1990 at Wrigley Field. Odds: 9/1

So there you have it. I predict Andy wins it in a final that features Howard and Gonzalez. Experience wins out.